The most important predictions for the price of Dogecoin DOGE: will it fall by 40% after the rise?

Dogecoin's (DOGE) holder base has become stable over the past few weeks, and its chain and price metrics have recently raised red flags for investors. These measures could soon lead to a 40% correction in the price of DOGE.

Can a community DOGE Who will hold up or is there a downward trend on the horizon?

Number of Dogecoin holders remains stable

DOGE’s holder base grew by over half a million holders in just two weeks in February. On February 2, the number of coin holders reached a new high of 6.5 million holders, an increase of approximately 10% from the 5.82 million holders on January 28.

The price of DOGE followed this rise, rising from $0.081 to $0.195 between February 10 and March 4. However, the number of carriers has become stable after all this growth.

Between March 7 and 12, the number of DOGE holders increased by approximately 100,000, reaching 6.57 million. Although 100,000 may seem like a lot compared to other currencies, it represents a small increase of only 0.15%. Recently, the growth in the price of DOGE has been closely linked to the significant growth in the number of holders of this coin. Since this number has stagnated over the past week, this could lead to a price stabilization or correction.

DOGE MVRVRV Increases Rapidly

The dramatic rise in the MVRV Z metric from 0.062 to 1.40 in just two weeks for DOGE stock indicates a potential case of overvaluation. This is the largest MVRV Z-Score for DOGE since November 2021. At that time, after reaching these levels, the price of DOGE corrected by almost 50% in the following month.

Think of the MVRV Z-Score as a thermometer that measures how “hot” or overvalued an asset is relative to its historical average price. A score of 0.062 indicates that DOGE was a little hot but not burning. However, the big jump to 1.40 indicates that the temperature has increased significantly.

Generally, a high MVRV Z-score is considered a sign that a correction may be on the horizon. This means the price may fall to better reflect its historical value. In simpler terms, the price of DOGE could fall based on this metric.

Dogecoin Price Forecast: Bearish Signs Ahead

Analyzing the DOGE Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), it is clear that recently the long-term (200-day) EMA has crossed above the short-term EMA lines, a so-called death cross. Furthermore, the DOGE price line is currently below the long-term exponential moving average lines. This generally indicates a potential downtrend or downtrend dominance.

However, Dogecoin has a strong historical relationship with Bitcoin and Ethereum. If these two coins continue to rise, DOGE price could soon return to $0.20 and above even with bearish measures.

Considering the stable coin holder count and increasing MVRV Z-score, coupled with the recent movement of EMA lines, DOGE price may test the $0.16 support zone soon. If it cannot resist, it could fall further to $0.12 or even $0.10, which represents a 40% correction.